Idealized simulations of tropical cyclones with thermodynamic conditions under reanalysis and CMIP5 scenarios

Abstract The idealized Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations are conducted to investigate tropical cyclone (TC) size intensity over the Western North Pacific (WNP) past decades, as represented by National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center Atmospheric (NCEP/NCAR) R-1, European Medium range (ECMWF) twentieth century (ERA20C) reanalysis, Oceanic Administration Cooperative Institute in Sciences 20th Century (CIRES20) Reanalysis V2 data, under a future climate, predicted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Firstly, sensitivity experiments with varying environmental thermodynamic forcing examine how conditions affect TC intensity. Secondly, distributions of quantities taken from NCEP/NCAR ERA20C, CIRES20, CMIP5 data used initialize four more sets WRF simulations. There is no significant variation nor WNP within 90 years based on downscaling high-resolution model, whereas those initialized show that both would increase (2071–2100) representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) compared during current (2010–2040) climate stage RCP8.5. An explanation these findings given referring impact air–sea thermal disequilibrium acutely increasing temperature outflow, while their relation previous works also discussed.